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-;; Finite probability distributions
-
-;; by Konrad Hinsen
-;; last updated January 8, 2010
-
-;; Copyright (c) Konrad Hinsen, 2009-2010. All rights reserved. The use
-;; and distribution terms for this software are covered by the Eclipse
-;; Public License 1.0 (http://opensource.org/licenses/eclipse-1.0.php)
-;; which can be found in the file epl-v10.html at the root of this
-;; distribution. By using this software in any fashion, you are
-;; agreeing to be bound by the terms of this license. You must not
-;; remove this notice, or any other, from this software.
-
-(ns
- #^{:author "Konrad Hinsen"
- :doc "Finite probability distributions
- This library defines a monad for combining finite probability
- distributions."}
- clojure.contrib.probabilities.finite-distributions
- (:use [clojure.contrib.monads
- :only (defmonad domonad with-monad maybe-t m-lift m-chain)]
- [clojure.contrib.def :only (defvar)]))
-
-; The probability distribution monad. It is limited to finite probability
-; distributions (e.g. there is a finite number of possible value), which
-; are represented as maps from values to probabilities.
-
-(defmonad dist-m
- "Monad describing computations on fuzzy quantities, represented by a finite
- probability distribution for the possible values. A distribution is
- represented by a map from values to probabilities."
- [m-result (fn m-result-dist [v]
- {v 1})
- m-bind (fn m-bind-dist [mv f]
- (reduce (partial merge-with +)
- (for [[x p] mv [y q] (f x)]
- {y (* q p)})))
- ])
-
-; Applying the monad transformer maybe-t to the basic dist monad results
-; in the cond-dist monad that can handle invalid values. The total probability
-; for invalid values ends up as the probability of m-zero (which is nil).
-; The function normalize takes this probability out of the distribution and
-; re-distributes its weight over the valid values.
-
-(defvar cond-dist-m
- (maybe-t dist-m)
- "Variant of the dist monad that can handle undefined values.")
-
-; Normalization
-
-(defn- scale-by
- "Multiply each entry in dist by the scale factor s and remove zero entries."
- [dist s]
- (into {}
- (for [[val p] dist :when (> p 0)]
- [val (* p s)])))
-
-(defn normalize-cond [cdist]
- "Normalize a probability distribution resulting from a computation in
- the cond-dist monad by re-distributing the weight of the invalid values
- over the valid ones."
- (let [missing (get cdist nil 0)
- dist (dissoc cdist nil)]
- (cond (zero? missing) dist
- (= 1 missing) {}
- :else (let [scale (/ 1 (- 1 missing))]
- (scale-by dist scale)))))
-
-(defn normalize
- "Convert a weight map (e.g. a map of counter values) to a distribution
- by multiplying with a normalization factor. If the map has a key
- :total, its value is assumed to be the sum over all the other values and
- it is used for normalization. Otherwise, the sum is calculated
- explicitly. The :total key is removed from the resulting distribution."
- [weights]
- (let [total (:total weights)
- w (dissoc weights :total)
- s (/ 1 (if (nil? total) (reduce + (vals w)) total))]
- (scale-by w s)))
-
-; Functions that construct distributions
-
-(defn uniform
- "Return a distribution in which each of the elements of coll
- has the same probability."
- [coll]
- (let [n (count coll)
- p (/ 1 n)]
- (into {} (for [x (seq coll)] [x p]))))
-
-(defn choose
- "Construct a distribution from an explicit list of probabilities
- and values. They are given in the form of a vector of probability-value
- pairs. In the last pair, the probability can be given by the keyword
- :else, which stands for 1 minus the total of the other probabilities."
- [& choices]
- (letfn [(add-choice [dist [p v]]
- (cond (nil? p) dist
- (= p :else)
- (let [total-p (reduce + (vals dist))]
- (assoc dist v (- 1 total-p)))
- :else (assoc dist v p)))]
- (reduce add-choice {} (partition 2 choices))))
-
-(defn bernoulli
- [p]
- "Returns the Bernoulli distribution for probability p."
- (choose p 1 :else 0))
-
-(defn- bc
- [n]
- "Returns the binomial coefficients for a given n."
- (let [r (inc n)]
- (loop [c 1
- f (list 1)]
- (if (> c n)
- f
- (recur (inc c) (cons (* (/ (- r c) c) (first f)) f))))))
-
-(defn binomial
- [n p]
- "Returns the binomial distribution, which is the distribution of the
- number of successes in a series of n experiments whose individual
- success probability is p."
- (let [q (- 1 p)
- n1 (inc n)
- k (range n1)
- pk (take n1 (iterate #(* p %) 1))
- ql (reverse (take n1 (iterate #(* q %) 1)))
- f (bc n)]
- (into {} (map vector k (map * f pk ql)))))
-
-(defn make-distribution
- "Returns the distribution in which each element x of the collection
- has a probability proportional to (f x)"
- [coll f]
- (normalize (into {} (for [k coll] [k (f k)]))))
-
-(defn zipf
- "Returns the Zipf distribution in which the numbers k=1..n have
- probabilities proportional to 1/k^s."
- [s n]
- (make-distribution (range 1 (inc n)) #(/ (java.lang.Math/pow % s))))
-
-(defn certainly
- "Returns a distribution in which the single value v has probability 1."
- [v]
- {v 1})
-
-(with-monad dist-m
-
- (defn join-with
- "Returns the distribution of (f x y) with x from dist1 and y from dist2."
- [f dist1 dist2]
- ((m-lift 2 f) dist1 dist2))
-
-)
-
-(with-monad cond-dist-m
- (defn cond-prob
- "Returns the conditional probability for the values in dist that satisfy
- the predicate pred."
- [pred dist]
- (normalize-cond
- (domonad
- [v dist
- :when (pred v)]
- v))))
-
-; Select (with equal probability) N items from a sequence
-
-(defn- nth-and-rest [n xs]
- "Return a list containing the n-th value of xs and the sequence
- obtained by removing the n-th value from xs."
- (let [[h t] (split-at n xs)]
- (list (first t) (concat h (rest t)))))
-
-(with-monad dist-m
-
- (defn- select-n [n xs]
- (letfn [(select-1 [[s xs]]
- (uniform (for [i (range (count xs))]
- (let [[nth rest] (nth-and-rest i xs)]
- (list (cons nth s) rest)))))]
- ((m-chain (replicate n select-1)) (list '() xs))))
-
- (defn select [n xs]
- "Return the distribution for all possible ordered selections of n elements
- out of xs."
- ((m-lift 1 first) (select-n n xs)))
-
-)
-
-; Find the probability that a given predicate is satisfied
-
-(defn prob
- "Return the probability that the predicate pred is satisfied in the
- distribution dist, i.e. the sum of the probabilities of the values
- that satisfy pred."
- [pred dist]
- (apply + (for [[x p] dist :when (pred x)] p)))
-